Warning: Spoilers for Fallout season 1
A convincing Fallout theory makes the claim that the show’s big Vault-Tec twist is actually a massive fake-out. Via the Vault-Tec meeting hosted by Barb Howard and Bud Askins, the Fallout season 1 finale featured what appeared to be a major change to the lore of the games. When asked about how the company could ensure that their plans for the future would eventually go into action, Barb shocked both viewers and all those present with the response, “by dropping the bomb ourselves.”
What makes this reveal such a game-changer is how it directly contradicts pre-established notions about one of the most important events in the Fallout timeline. It’s long been understood that China bombing Alaska is the reason for the Great War that ravaged the surface and created Fallout’s apocalypse. Surprisingly, Barb’s comment has challenged that perception. However, it’s important to note that what was said during Vault-Tec’s meeting doesn’t dismiss it entirely. It’s entirely possible that Barb’s big moment doesn’t mean what it implies.
The obvious takeaway from the Vault-Tec meeting in Fallout is that Vault-Tec is the real instigator of the Great War and the party responsible for the dropping of the first nuke. But while Barb’s line does indeed create that initial impression, it and of itself isn’t a retcon of Fallout lore, nor should it be taken as proof that Vault-Tec started the Great War. Because the show doesn’t reveal the aftermath of the scene, the only thing that Barb’s comment proves is that Vault-Tec was willing to drop the first nuke. Essentially, all Barb did was suggest that they drop it; whether or not they went through with it hasn’t been covered in flashbacks yet.
As for why Barb would propose this solution and not execute the plan, the explanation could be quite simple. It could be that Vault-Tec intended to make the first move but was beaten to the punch. China could have surprised them with the sudden bombing of Anchorage, which would have given Vault-Tec what they wanted in a way that wouldn’t have forced them to take matters into their own hands.
What happened during the birthday party flashbacks supports the notion that China is still the cause of the Great War in Fallout canon. Regardless of what ultimately happened between Cooper and Barb after what he learned during the meeting, it’s hard to imagine Vault-Tec setting their plan in motion with Barb’s daughter in danger. As her role in the meeting confirms, Barb has a lot of authority within the organization and should have had some level of control over the timing of the launch. For that reason, it’s likely that she would have arranged for her family to be out of harm’s way – if, of course, Vault-Tec was behind it.
Fallout season 2 confirming that Vault-Tec didn’t drop the first bomb would make a great deal of sense, considering that the alternative would amount to some significant plot holes. While Vault-Tec being at fault would make for a great twist, the evidence that the perpetrator was China is overwhelming. Tim Cain, who created the franchise, has confirmed China’s role in the history of Fallout’s world [via PC Gamer]. According to Cain, China hit Alaska with a nuke after discovering that the United States had secretly developed biological weapons.
The idea that China started the apocalypse has been corroborated by various in-game sources, such as a computer terminal in Fallout 4, the diaries of Roger Maxson in the original Fallout game, and more. On account of all the backstory Fallout has built for its post-apocalyptic universe, making Vault-Tec the heart of it all would drastically change the lore and go against several confirmed elements of the franchise’s history. It would lead to some unfortunate inconsistencies, as it would be difficult to reconcile the reveal that Vault-Tec dropped the first bomb when other details implicate China.
The franchise is full of reasons why the season 1 finale’s big twist may not be what it seems, with Vault-Tec’s lack of preparation and the plot holes it would create being among the biggest. Another stems from comments made by the showrunners themselves. When asked about it, Fallout co-showrunner Graham Wagner noted that there’s still “more story to tell” and not to treat anything from this scene as “definitive.” Wagner clarified that while this scene did happen, the series has not shown what happened between that and “the actual bombs falling.”
Confirmation that the scene leaves things unfinished and that it’s not “definitive” when it comes to Vault-Tec’s role goes hand-in-hand with the theory that the company never acted on its intentions to drop the bomb. If that’s the case, Fallout season 2’s flashback storyline could culminate in Barb, Bud Askins, and the others hurriedly putting their plan to use the Vaults in motion when the bombs arrive ahead of schedule. Going in this direction could finally put speculation about the start of the Great War to rest.
All things considered, there’s a good chance that China really did start the war as the original lore indicated, but Vault-Tec not being responsible despite season 1’s big twist would beg the obvious question: why would Fallout imply that Vault-Tec drop the bomb at all if that’s not what happened? After all, Fallout wouldn’t have included this line just to temporarily mislead viewers. But this too could have a very plausible explanation, as Lucy’s storyline gives the big reveal an additional purpose. It was during the same episode that Fallout confirmed yet another controversial twist – Hank MacLean nuked Shady Sands.
The Shady Sands retcon hinged on the Vault-Tec revelation from Barb. In other words, Fallout revealing that Vault-Tec only wanted to drop the bombs served a narrative goal even if they ultimately didn’t cause the apocalypse. By establishing Vault-Tec’s interest in making sure the surface would be destroyed by a nuclear war, Fallout effectively laid the groundwork for the reveal that Vault-Tec had access to nuclear weapons. So while Barb’s “by dropping the bomb ourselves” line may not have necessarily reshaped the history of the Great War, it was still an incredibly consequential line one way or another.
Source: PC Gamer