As numerous developments make clear, the fight over the White Tower is on the horizon in The Wheel of Time, and by the looks of things, it could play out quite differently from the original story. At the end of the fourth book, The Shadow Rising, a group of Aes Sedai dissatisfied with Siuan Sanche’s decision-making started a coup, which culminated in the latter losing her title as Amylrin Seat. Naturally, this upset the balance of power in Tar Valon and culminated in more issues for Wheel of Time’s main characters.
In Robert Jordan’s The Wheel of Time books, it was Elaida who prompted the first coup, urging her fellow Aes Sedai to take action against Siuan. Following the removal (and stilling) of Siuan, Elaida received the support of enough Aes Sedai to become her replacement. Numerous Aes Sedai didn’t accept the changes at the White Tower, which paved the way for a full-scale Aes Sedai rebellion and Egwene al’Vere’s rise to power. As for when these struggles will begin to play out in the TV version of the story, all signs point to it happening in the very near future, possibly as early as The Wheel of Time season 3’s first episode.
In terms of the timeline, Elaida’s Aes Sedai coup is a long way off, considering that the series just wrapped up its adaptation of The Great Hunt, and Elaida doesn’t overthrow Siuan until the end of The Shadow Rising. Were Prime Video’s show to follow the same formula, it would have to go through The Dragon Reborn and most of The Shadow Rising before it could get to this point. However, it’s been confirmed that The Shadow Rising will be the focus of season 3’s story. That indicates that The Dragon Reborn will be skipped or have some of its events sprinkled into The Shadow’s Rising story.
With the show seemingly speeding ahead with its narrative, Siuan Sanche’s downfall is on track to happen sooner rather than later. This won’t be difficult for the show to pull off, as there’s not much in The Dragon Reborn that needs to happen at the White Tower. Mat getting Healed at the White Tower was the extent of the developments that occurred there during the book, as the rest of the characters were elsewhere on The Wheel of Time map. With that in mind, The Wheel of Time’s Tar Valon storyline can seamlessly transition into The Shadow Rising’s events in season 3.
Siuan remains in control of the White Tower, but the notion of her losing that power has already been teased on more than one occasion. One instance of this was in an exchange between Liandrin and Leane Sharif in The Wheel of Time season 2, episode 4, titled “Daughter of the Night.” At the end of their conversation, Liandrin made the ominous remark to Leane, “You know, if she falls…you’ll fall with her.” Part of what makes this comment meaningful is that she’s right; as Siuan’s second in command, Leane does indeed “fall” with Siuan when the Amyrlin Seat is deposed in The Shadow Rising.
Through not-so-subtle hints like this, Liandrin has made no secret of her displeasure with Siuan’s role as the Amylrin Seat and her desire to see her usurped. Through Liandrin, Siuan Sanche already has at least one powerful figure within the White Tower with a motive to get rid of her. Given how the series has emphasized Liandrin’s interest in taking down Siuan, there’s a good chance the series plans to act on this setup eventually, even though it’s actually Elaida who ultimately spearheads her removal from power in The Shadow Rising.
Any intention Liandrin has in deposing Siuan will be bolstered by what happened in season 2’s penultimate episode. After calling 14 Aes Sedai to Cairhien for mysterious purposes, Siuan notably failed to stop Moiraine and Rand from escaping through the Ways and lost a pivotal battle to Lanfear. Shortly after that, Rand was proclaimed the Dragon Reborn at Falme. The Aes Sedai were never briefed on what was going on, but it shouldn’t take long for them to put the pieces together: they were deceived by Siuan about their presence at Cairhein.
In the books, understanding what Siuan had been up to with Moiraine in regards to her long search for the Dragon Reborn was the biggest contributing factor in the Aes Sedai’s decision to depose her. After Wheel of Time season 2’s ending, their TV counterparts will have similar reasons to lose their trust in Siuan’s leadership. After all, it can’t be ignored that not only did Siuan conceal the Dragon’s return, but she couldn’t stop him from escaping. It shouldn’t be too hard for someone like Liandrin to place the blame for all this on Siuan’s secrecy and alleged incompetence.
While Liandrin is in the best position to arrange for Siuan to be met with disgrace in The Wheel of Time season 3, the show’s adaptation of the coup would feel incomplete if the character originally responsible for it had no part in the story. But as the finale implies, the show hasn’t done away with Elaida. In the season 2 finale, Moiriane described her mentor in the White Tower as “controlling,” “precise,” “terrifying,” and “strong.” All four words are fitting descriptions of the person who trained her in the books, Elaida, and also of the approach she took to leading the Aes Sedai in Siuan’s absence.
The show’s mentions of Elaida lay the groundwork for her to show up in The Wheel of Time season 3 and follow in the footsteps of the book character. It’s possible that in the show, Liandrin will fan the flames and pave the way for Siuan to be deposed, but Elaida will be the one who winds up in control of the White Tower. The Aes Sedai may not agree to make Liandrin the new Amyrlin. Fueling theories that Elaida is on her way to the show are the reports that Shohreh Aaghdashloo has been cast as Elaida for season 3, though admittedly this has yet to be officially confirmed.
Another sign the coup is coming is the tease of a massive battle between female channelers. Wheel of Time showrunner Rafe Judkins described season 3’s opening scene as “a bunch of women in their 40s and 50s shredding each other.” The two most obvious explanations for such a fight would be the White Tower coup or Liandrin and the Black Ajah making their move against the Aes Sedai. Either scenario would be rooted in The Shadow Rising’s story.
But though this tease isn’t definitely about the coup, there will most assuredly be a connection one way or another in The Wheel of Time season 3. If the Black Ajah’s existence in the White Tower is exposed, Siuan will suffer pressure from this reveal as well. Dissenting voices in the White Tower could argue – and perhaps rightfully so – that Siuan should have been wise to the threat that the Black Ajah presented.