Kevin Costner’s upcoming Western film, Horizon: An American Saga, was a risky project to begin with, but it’s only gotten more audacious after a new reveal. Costner originally mapped out the story for Horizon in the late 1980s, when he was arguably at his peak of commercial popularity. In the early ’90s, Costner directed and starred in Dances with Wolves, one of the best Western movies ever made, which would go on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Over three decades later, Costner has finally moved forward with Horizon.
The 69-year-old actor has accomplished something few film stars have: resurfacing as a popular icon late in his career. His role in the Western television drama Yellowstone brought Costner back into the genre’s spotlight, with the popular series indicating that there’s still an enormous market for a well-made Western epic. Taking advantage of that newfound notoriety, he’s finally fulfilling the 30-year passion project as its producer, director, and lead star. Costner still had to invest his own money in Horizon to get the project made, so he has a lot of personal risk on the line.
Horizon: An American Saga has a risky release schedule to begin with, given that the movie releases on June 28, and it has a sequel following shortly after on August 16. Costner’s plan is to make more Horizon movies after the first two, but that will rely on their commercial success for him to generate funding. The budget for the first two movies combined is $100 million, which isn’t an implausible amount to make back, but it will likely rely on raving reviews to bring people to theaters.
A report from Deadline quoted Horizon as a “3-hour Western,” increasing the gamble as audiences will now have to commit to an epic-length timespan for a genre that hasn’t been particularly successful in recent years. Of course, 2023’s Oppenheimer offers precedence for Horizon, and there have been plenty of other box office hits beyond the 3-hour mark, but it will have to be a special movie that generates word of mouth. The unique release format could be appealing as 2024’s summer event movie, similar to “Barbenheimer” in 2023, with the draw of an exciting sequel coming shortly later.
Horizon’s success depends as much on Part 2 as it does on Part 1. Not only does Part 1 have to bring people to theaters, it has to be compelling enough to bring audiences back to theaters for Part 2. The 3-hour duration adds some difficulty to that because it will have to maintain entertainment value throughout its run time to make returning to theaters only six weeks later appealing. While the Horizon trailers seem terrific, this is still a tall task that even the most popular franchises could struggle with.
Major franchises like Marvel and James Bond have been at their best when providing space between projects, as audiences can get burnt out. Given that the Horizon formula has never been done before, it’s hard to say whether that burnout will be applicable. Alternatively, sequels like Dune: Part Two that have outperformed their predecessors have done so by building anticipation over the course of years through the first film’s streaming release. Audiences who miss Horizon Part 1 in theaters presumably won’t have much time to catch up on a digitalrelease in time for the sequel.
In terms of a Western epic, the 3-hour duration isn’t a big stretch. Some of the greatest Western movies ever made, from The Good, the Bad and the Ugly to Once Upon a Time in the West, are enormous movies that utilize their time exceptionally. Not to mention, Costner’s Best Picture-winning Dances with Wolves had a 3-hour run time. For historical dramas in general, other Best Picture winners like The Godfather and Oppenheimer were also massive box office hits at long lengths. There’s certainly precedence for a movie like Horizon to succeed, but the release schedule is what makes it tricky.
Ultimately, there’s still the possibility that Horizon succeeds commercially with the two-movie release plan failing if Part 1 is a massive hit but Part 2 flops. Kevin Costner’s plan for Horizon: An American Saga is enormously risky, but there are several avenues where it could succeed, and $100 million isn’t the biggest budget to overcome. Yellowstone’s popularity proves that there’s a significant audience that loves watching Costner, but that might not necessarily equate to the box office.
Sources: Deadline