Star Wars’ next movie, The Mandalorian & Grogu, could prove to be a huge box office hit for the franchise, in more ways than one. Despite a divisive reaction to the Star Wars sequel trilogy, the only movie in the franchise to have truly performed below expectations is Solo: A Star Wars Story, which accumulated a worldwide total of $392 million. Other than that disappointment, however – a disappointment that did, admittedly, impact Lucasfilm’s theatrical strategy drastically – most recent Star Wars movies have hit $1 billion or more, and Star Wars’ next movie is perfectly positioned to reach that target, too.
The Mandalorian & Grogu is the first of four confirmed upcoming Star Wars movies, and it will continue where The Mandalorian season 3 left off. Din Djarin and Grogu will encounter more adventures across the galaxy, setting the stage for the upcoming conflict between the New Republic and Grand Admiral Thrawn, who returned to Star Wars’ primary galaxy in Ahsoka season 1. As such, The Mandalorian & Grogu will be crucial to the franchise’s narrative plans moving forward, but it will also be crucial for attaining a box office record achieved by only one other franchise in Hollywood thus far.
Currently, the reigning box office champion in Hollywood is, of course, the Marvel Cinematic Universe. With 33 theatrical films, plenty of which have hit that coveted $1 billion mark, this is unsurprising. In total, the MCU has generated nearly $30 billion in box office revenue. In second place, at the time of writing, is the Spider-Man franchise, at $10.6 billion, though there’s no denying that a large part of that is also down to the MCU’s success (this figure also accounts for the Sony Spider-Man Universe movies, like Venom). Crucially, however, in third place, is Star Wars, with a total box office haul of $10.3 billion.
As such, if Star Wars wants to break that elusive $11 billion barrier, The Mandalorian & Grogu will have to earn nearly $700 million at the worldwide box office. This should, in theory, be utterly doable. The Mandalorian is currently one of Star Wars’ biggest sub-franchises – it is one of the most-watched shows on Disney+ and has an incredibly loyal following. Additionally, The Mandalorian & Grogu will be the first new theatrically-released Star Wars film since 2019. Curiosity alone will likely compel people to book a ticket, no matter how they may feel about Star Wars’ recent output.
Let’s face it – if a movie like The Mandalorian & Grogu can’t drive people to the cinema, nothing can. Anything less than $700 million would be a disappointment. With a reported budget of $120 million (via Bespin Bulletin), it will be much easier for Lucasfilm to recoup its costs, but still. There are undoubtedly certain expectations, and yet The Mandalorian & Grogu should be able to surpass them all. If Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace’s staggeringly successful rerelease has taught audiences anything, it’s that people want to experience Star Wars in the cinema. It is, after all, first and foremost, a movie franchise.
Even if, by some miracle, The Mandalorian & Grogu doesn’t hit $700 million, it’s clear that Star Wars is still one of the biggest entertainment brands, both in Hollywood and globally. A total haul of $10.3 billion at the box office with less than half of the movie output of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is no small feat. Solo’s perceived box office failure was undoubtedly an outlier – The Mandalorian & Grogu has the potential to change the franchise forever moving forward, and hopefully, it will remind audiences and Hollywood why Star Wars’ became such a beloved movie franchise in the first place.