Warning: This post contains spoilers for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes introduced Lucy Gray Baird as a tribute, but there’s a reason she wasn’t a tribute option in The Hunger Games: Catching Fire’s Quarter Quell beyond the obvious. Played by Rachel Zegler, Lucy Gray sang her way into the hearts of Coriolanus Snow and the Capitol’s citizens. She may have won the 10th Hunger Games and returned to District 12 a victor, but Lucy Gray’s fate remains a big mystery. Considering President Snow’s decision to bring back past victors in Catching Fire, perhaps he was still waiting for Lucy Gray’s return.
Lucy Gray is a unique character in The Hunger Games movies. She wasn’t a fighter, nor did she have any special abilities that aided in her survival (Katniss Everdeen had her bows and arrows). All Lucy Gray had was her musical talent, which she displayed when she sang songs throughout The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. Considering Lucy Gray wasn’t introduced into canon until after the original book trilogy had been written, it makes sense that she wasn’t in Catching Fire’s Quarter Quell. However, there’s more than one plausible reason why she doesn’t appear or is mentioned.
Lucy Gray may have made her mark during the 10th Hunger Games, but Snow pretty much erased her existence when he destroyed the records of her win. Everything involving the 10th Hunger Games vanished, with the only record of it remaining with Dr. Gaul, who kept a master in her vault. What’s more, the people of District 12 didn’t tune into the 10th Hunger Games beyond the reaping because of the lack of televisions. With all records destroyed and District 12 not having much of a collective memory of events, Lucy Gray’s win is lost to history.
No one would remember who Lucy Gray was after 65 years, nor would they have attempted to make her an option as a female tribute from District 12. That left only Katniss as tribute for the Quarter Quell. It’s also possible Snow, even after so long, didn’t want to remind anyone of Lucy Gray’s existence because it would bring up too many questions. As president, he also had control of the narrative. Even if he still had a copy of the tape (likely taken from Dr. Gaul or passed down to him), Snow wouldn’t dare make Lucy Gray’s records public.
The fact that Lucy Gray wasn’t an option in Catching Fire’s Quarter Quell also seems to solidify her death. The Quarter Quell is set 65 years after The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes’ ending, and Lucy Gray would’ve been in her early 80s had she participated. But since her fate is ambiguous, it’s unclear whether she made it to that age. And if she’d survived somehow, there’s no telling for how long. It’s possible Lucy Gray was too scared to resurface because of what Snow would do to her. Returning to Panem would also change everything, especially for Snow.
Regardless of whether she survived in the aftermath of The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, it’s likely that, because Lucy Gray isn’t in consideration at all for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire’s Quarter Quell, she died at some point in the decades after the 10th Hunger Games. It seems unlikely that Snow would have simply forgotten about her, especially if he felt threatened that she might return and reveal the truth about what happened. If Lucy Gray is dead, it’s possible that only Snow knows about it. After all, he went to great lengths to ensure her memory was buried.