PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) says that the reforms instituted by President Tinubu have yielded positive outcomes in terms of government revenue, improvement in credit ratings, exports and capital importation.
This was disclosed in the firm’s Economic Outlook for June 2024 where it projected the economy to grow at 2.9% in 2024.
The report stated that the major twin reforms of the President in the energy and foreign exchange sectors have pushed government revenue in terms of FAAC disbursement up “by 91% from N976 billion in May 2023 to N1.87 trillion in April 2024.”
Furthermore, the report alluded to the improved credit rating from major credit rating agencies around the world.
It also made reference to the 200% increase in oil exports from N5.15 trillion Q1, 2023 to N15.5 trillion Q1, 2024 and the increase in both FDIs and FPIs between April to June of 2023 and the corresponding period of 2024.
The report states, “The reforms have yielded positive outcomes. FAAC disbursements increased by 91.3% from N976 billion disbursed in May 2023 to N1.87 trillion in April 2024. The increase was driven by distributable VAT, statutory allocation and exchange rate difference revenue”
“Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from Stable to Positive. Oil exports grew by 200.9% to N15.5 trillion in Q1 2024 from N5.15 trillion recorded in Q1 2023. Non-oil exports also grew by 38.5% to N1.8 trillion in Q1 2024 from N1.3 trillion recorded in Q1 2023.”
“FDI’s grew 114% from $86 million recorded in Q2 2023 to $184 million in Q4 2023. Similarly, FPI’s increased to 190% from $106.9 million in Q2 2023 to $309.8 million in Q4 2023.”
Impact of Tinubu’s reforms on businesses and households
While the report lauded the positives of President Tinubu’s reforms, it also highlighted the negative impact of the reforms on businesses and households due to shocks such as; inflation, naira devaluation, and rising interest rates.
The firm stated thus, “The naira depreciated against the dollar by 67.8% from an average of ₦461.1 in May 2023 to ₦1,433.8 in May 2024. The depreciation took effect despite foreign exchange market reforms by CBN to achieve price discovery and attract liquidity to the market.”
“The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was raised by 775 basis points between May 2023 and 2024 to address rising inflation.”
“Although the rise in MPR may attract more Investors to the fixed-income market due to Higher yields, it has negatively impacted Borrowing costs for businesses.”
For households, the report stated that shocks necessitated by the reforms have negatively impacted consumption, savings and investments in households possibly leading to a decrease in the standard of living and an increase in poverty.
According to the report, “The Impact of pressure points on households may lead to a decrease in standard of living and higher Poverty levels.”
It also notes that naira devaluation, inflation and the rise in interest rates have led to an increase in import input prices which passes through to domestic price increases for businesses. The result of this according to the report is a reduction in margins, a decrease in revenue, an increase in the cost of funds and others.
It states, “The impact of pressure points on businesses may lead to a decrease in reinvestment and/or corporate exits from the industry”
Backstory
Within the first 30 days of assuming office, President Tinubu removed the aged-long and expensive fuel subsidy and unified the different segments of the foreign exchange market in a bid to equalise the exchange rate on the official and parallel markets.
- The reforms gained applause from analysts and the international community. Notable credit ratings agencies such as Fitch, and Moody’s revised Nigeria’s credit ratings upward from stable to positive while S&P affirmed it as stable on the back of these reforms.
- However, it has led to a record level cost of living crisis for Nigerians. The transport cost has increased by over 200%, inflation has reached a 28-year high of 33.95% with food inflation at 40.66% and the naira has depreciated to levels not seen before at N1500/$.
- In a bid to rein in inflation and stabilise the foreign exchange market, the CBN has hiked MPR by a combined 750 basis points this year from 18.75% to 26.25% leading to a high cost of accessing capital by businesses.
- In the past 12 months, notable multinationals, especially in the FMCG industry, have exited the country citing the harsh economic environment and ever-increasing cost of doing business there.