By Cyril Okosun
As the Edo governorship election scheduled for September 21, 2024, approaches, it is increasingly evident that President Bola Tinubu is desperate for his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), to secure a win. This desperation is not merely about maintaining political relevance in Edo; it is part of a political calculation as Tinubu eyes a second term ahead of the 2027 general elections. With his popularity waning in northern Nigeria, securing votes from southern Nigeria and the Middle Belt has become a strategic priority for the President, and the first step in this direction is to ensure that as many governors as possible from these regions belong to the APC.
Edo State is not just another electoral contest; it is a crucial battleground in Tinubu’s political strategy. A victory in Edo would be a statement of power and influence, demonstrating Tinubu’s ability to consolidate his hold on southern Nigeria. But this ambition is fraught with risks. Edo is not Lagos, where Tinubu’s influence is absolute. The political consciousness of the Edo people is strong, and they have demonstrated their capacity to resist external influence. The infamous “Edo no be Lagos” slogan, which became a rallying cry during the 2020 governorship election when Tinubu attempted to impose Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu on the state, is a testament to this. The people of Edo rejected Tinubu’s overtures then, and they could do so again if they sensed a repeat of that scenario.
Tinubu’s sights are set beyond Edo. The next state he is keen for the APC to take over is Anambra, where residents of the southeast state will head to the polls in 2025 to elect a new governor. Securing Anambra would strengthen his hold on the South and position him favorably for the 2027 general elections. However, these aggressive maneuvers risk backfiring. The political landscape of Nigeria is complex, and attempts to forcefully take over opposition states can lead to severe consequences, including violence and unrest.
History is replete with examples of leaders who ignored the people’s will and paid a heavy price. Leaders who sought to impose their will on the electorate often found themselves disgraced out of office. The collapse of dictatorial regimes worldwide serves as a stark reminder that political power, when exercised without the consent of the governed, is unsustainable. Tinubu should take heed of these lessons. His ambition to forcibly take over opposition states could be his greatest undoing, leading to unprecedented violence across the country and damaging the fabric of Nigeria’s democracy.
President Tinubu should not be deceived by the posturing of Senator Adams Oshiomhole, former governor of Edo State, and Philip Shaibu, former deputy governor. While these two figures may present themselves as political heavyweights capable of delivering Edo to the APC, their popularity in the state is questionable. Oshiomhole and Shaibu are seen by many as inconsistent, promoters of violence, ethnic jingoists, and kings of anti-party activities. Their involvement could alienate more voters than it attracts, further complicating Tinubu’s plans.
Many prominent leaders have warned of the dangers of ignoring the people’s will. Former U.S. President Abraham Lincoln famously said, “No man is good enough to govern another man without that other’s consent.” Similarly, Nelson Mandela, the anti-apartheid revolutionary and former President of South Africa, stated that “to deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.” These quotes serve as a reminder that leadership is about serving the people, not imposing one’s will upon them.
President Tinubu must tread carefully as he pursues his political ambitions in Edo and beyond. The Edo governorship election is not merely a test of his influence but a measure of his respect for democratic principles. The lessons of history are clear: when leaders fail to put the people first, they do so at their peril. Tinubu would do well to remember this as he navigates the complex political terrain ahead.
Okosun, a former student union leader, writes from Ekpoma, Edo state.