Trump vs Harris: Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller has issued a stunning prediction about the November 5 election.
As the United States heads toward the November 5 election, Northwestern University data scientist has issued a stunning prediction about the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Thomas Miller, who correctly called the outcome of the 2020 election, forecasted a landslide win for Democratic contender Harris.
“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” data scientist Miller told Fortune Magazine.
Miller predicted the precise outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which he made by using betting markets instead of conventional surveys.
He accomplished this by creating a model that turned betting prices into forecasts of the popular vote and the Electoral College. The model, which is centered on 16 presidential contests, shows a weak association between popular vote and betting odds.
According to Miller’s forecast, as of September, Harris would have garnered 55% of the popular vote, which would give her a sizable advantage in the Electoral College.
His analysis also revealed that Harris‘ popularity has grown in the last few months, despite the fact that Trump took a lead over Joe Biden in June.
However, the odds have changed significantly since Biden’s withdrawal from the White House race.
Trump vs Harris: Is Democratic candidate leading in swing states?
This comes after American singer Taylor Swift declared her support for Harris last week, following the US VP’s first presidential debate with Trump.
Miller’s forecast also coincided with the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, which indicated that Harris is leading in significant swing states.
According to the survey, Harris leads by six points in Pennsylvania, where she is leading by 51 percent to 45 percent. This state is predicted to be a decisive one in the upcoming election in November.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted in Michigan indicates that Trump is trailing Harris by five points, with 50 percent of respondents supporting the Democratic contender and 45 percent supporting the Republican nominee for president.
According to the poll, Harris leads Trump by a slim margin in Wisconsin, with 48 percent of voters’ support as opposed to 47 percent.