Nigeria’s average crude oil production in the month of September declined by as much as 33,000 barrels to 1.405 million barrels per day.
In its October oil market report, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed that Nigeria’s crude oil production fell from 1.438 million barrels per day in August, according to secondary data from Nigerian authorities.
Direct communication shows that Nigeria’s average crude oil production for September was 1.324 million barrels per day, a drop of 27 thousand barrels compared to 1.352 million barrels per day in the previous month.
Despite this decline, Nigeria remained Africa’s largest oil producer, widening the gap with Libya, which experienced production setbacks due to the shutdown of key oil fields, reducing its output to 450 thousand barrels per day.
Non-DoC liquids supply, referring to output from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), is projected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, maintaining an average of 53.1 mb/d, consistent with last month’s assessment.
US crude and condensate production saw a slight decline in July, while natural gas liquids (NGLs) production decreased month-on-month but remained robust at around 6.9 mb/d, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 mb/d. US liquids supply growth for 2024 is expected at 0.6 mb/d, with other key contributors to non-DoC growth being Canada, Brazil, and China.
Crude oil supply
According to secondary sources, OPEC-12’s total crude oil production averaged 26.04 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September 2024, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 604 thousand barrels per day (tb/d).
Crude oil output saw increases in Iran and Kuwait, while production declined in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, total crude oil production from non-OPEC DoC members averaged 14.06 mb/d in September 2024, marking a month-on-month increase of 47 tb/d, with Kazakhstan leading the gains, while Russia experienced a decline in production.
Insights
The decline in crude oil production in September confirms an earlier Nairametrics report which stated that Nigeria’s crude oil production declined by 40,000 barrels in the month under review.
The report also notes that other OPEC members, particularly Libya, faced difficulties with oil output in September due to ongoing unrest disrupting the country’s supply.
Nigeria, meanwhile, has been struggling to increase oil production to meet both its OPEC quota and local refinery demands. Since the beginning of the year, the country’s output has hovered between 1.2 and 1.3 million barrels per day.