France’s plan to significantly reduce its military presence in West and Central Africa could backfire, potentially diminishing its influence in a region where Russian engagement is expanding.
This week, a French envoy submitted a report to President Emmanuel Macron proposing cuts to French military deployments in Chad, Gabon, and Ivory Coast. While the details remain undisclosed, sources reveal plans to slash troop numbers from 2,200 to approximately 600, with Chad retaining the largest contingent of 300 soldiers, down from 1,000.
However, Chad’s abrupt termination of its defense cooperation agreement with France on Thursday has thrown Paris into disarray. The move may force French forces to leave Chad altogether, threatening the logistical backbone of France’s military operations in Africa.
“For France, this marks the beginning of the end of its security engagement in central and Western Africa,” said Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel Programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. “If Chad exits, the French army will struggle to sustain operations in the region.”
Mounting Challenges for France
Chad’s decision, reportedly triggered by perceived French disengagement and its halved military presence, underscores the growing strain between Paris and its African allies. Chad’s government, led by President Mahamat Idriss Deby, also expressed concerns over France’s reduced capacity to guarantee the regime’s security.
Senegal has added to France’s woes, with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye declaring it inappropriate for French troops to remain stationed in the country. Currently, 350 French soldiers are based in Senegal.
These developments follow France’s withdrawal from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger after military coups and increasing anti-French sentiment. Paris now faces mounting pressure as its African military footprint shrinks amid competing global priorities, including the war in Ukraine and domestic budget constraints.
Rising Influence of Russia and Other Powers
As France reduces its African military commitments, Russia and other nations like Turkey and the UAE are stepping in. Russian mercenaries, such as the Wagner Group, are bolstering military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger while engaging in counterinsurgency operations.
Still, French officials downplay the immediate impact of Russia’s influence in Chad, noting that Moscow and N’Djamena support opposing factions in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. France also argues that Russia’s global military obligations, particularly in Ukraine and Syria, may limit its capacity to capitalize on Paris’s setbacks.
Sovereignty and Future Relations
Chad’s foreign ministry emphasized that its decision to end defense cooperation with France was aimed at asserting national sovereignty after six decades of independence. Officials assured that the move would not affect bilateral relations.
Meanwhile, France remains committed to dialogue with Chad and plans to maintain a presence in the region, partly to address humanitarian crises, including those stemming from Sudan’s conflict.
The drawdown reflects shifting geopolitical dynamics in Africa, raising questions about France’s long-term role on the continent and the expanding influence of non-Western powers.