The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s ramped-up production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) is significantly influencing the petrol market in Europe.
The refinery, which began operations in January 2024, started producing PMS in September, marking a pivotal shift from Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel.
With a capacity to refine 650,000 barrels per day, Dangote refinery has already begun exporting petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to international markets across Africa and beyond.
According to OPEC’s report, this has led to a reduction in Nigeria’s petroleum imports from Europe.
The operational ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, which is now contributing to global gasoline supply, is expected to exert further pressure on the European gasoline market.
As Nigeria, historically a major importer of refined petrol, continues producing locally, it will likely result in a reallocation of gasoline volumes in international markets, leading to adjustments in trade flows.
OPEC’s report also highlighted that in the last quarter of 2024, oil product imports into Nigeria significantly decreased, improving the outlook for the country’s external sector.
Despite high gasoline inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub, the report predicted that gasoline inventories would continue to rise into the following months due to winter-season demand pressures in the Atlantic Basin.
The Dangote refinery’s emergence has reshaped the market dynamics, with OPEC forecasting a bearish market sentiment due to increasing refinery output and high gasoline stock levels in Europe.
This shift also comes as Nigeria’s crude production reached an average of 1.507 million barrels per day in December, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month.
Notably, the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Europe’s largest refineries.
At 650,000 barrels per day, it surpasses the Shell Pernis refinery in the Netherlands (404,000 bpd), the BP Rotterdam refinery (380,000 bpd), and several other key refineries in Europe, cementing Nigeria’s position as a significant player in global refining.
This development signals a new chapter for Nigeria’s energy sector, as it moves towards self-sufficiency in fuel production and strengthens its position in international fuel markets.