Global trade will be steady in early 2025 – WTO
The World Trade Organisation has revealed that global goods trade remained stable in the final quarter of 2024 and showed signs of continued growth in early 2025.
According to the latest World Trade Organisation Goods Trade Barometer, the indicator, which provides real-time insights into merchandise trade trends, edged up slightly to 102.8 from 102.7 in December, signalling trade volumes remained above trend.
However, the WTO indicated growing trade policy uncertainty, and the looming prospect of new tariffs threatens to disrupt this stability in the coming months.
It mentioned that the WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator that tracks global trade momentum.
A reading above 100 suggests above-trend trade growth, while a figure below 100 signals weaker-than-expected performance.
Meanwhile, the latest reading of 102.8 suggested sustained trade recovery following the downturn of 2023.
However, economists cautioned that businesses may have temporarily increased imports in anticipation of possible policy shifts, potentially dampening demand later in the year.
It indicated that world merchandise trade volumes expanded by 3.3 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, reinforcing the WTO’s earlier forecast of 2.7 per cent growth for the full year.
However, regional disparities were notable.
European trade underperformed expectations, with both exports and imports remaining weak.
WTO asserted that North American imports and Asian exports exceeded predictions, reflecting stronger demand dynamics in these regions.
“The overall resilience of global trade is tempered by risks tied to escalating trade tensions. Talks of new tariffs and protectionist measures, particularly among major economies, could disrupt supply chains and weigh on trade performance in the second half of 2025,” WTO said.
The body added that it is set to release its next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report in April, providing a clearer picture of evolving trade dynamics.
It highlighted that all six component indices of the Goods Trade Barometer remained on or above trend. Automotive products (105.5), container shipping (103.7), and air freight (102.7) showed the strongest performance, indicating robust demand in these sectors.
Meanwhile, the WTO mentioned that indices for export orders (101.0), electronic components (102.3), and raw materials (101.6) remained closer to the baseline.
“Export orders, a key predictor of future trade trends, hovered near 100, underscoring the importance of monitoring potential shifts in global demand,” it stated.
It further noted that if policy uncertainty escalates or economic conditions deteriorate, a decline in export orders could signal an impending trade slowdown.
While early 2025 data suggests global trade remains on a recovery path, underlying risks pose significant questions for the months ahead.
It added, “Rising geopolitical tensions, potential trade policy shifts, and uncertain economic conditions could reshape the trajectory of global commerce.
“As businesses and policymakers navigate this uncertain landscape, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether global trade continues its steady expansion or faces renewed headwinds.”
