Naira-for-crude: Fuel price hike looms as Dangote, NNPCL talks fail
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has temporarily halted the sales of petroleum products in naira as the naira-for-crude talks between the $20bn Lekki-based plant and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited appear to have failed.
Following the announcement of the halt in petroleum products’ sales in naira by the Dangote refinery on Wednesday, the cost of loading petrol at private depots in Lagos jumped to N900/litre. It was less than N850/litre before the announcement.
Industry experts and oil marketers warned that the halt in naira sales by the Dangote refinery could increase the pressure on the foreign exchange market, as dealers would now have to access the United States dollars in large amounts to buy petroleum products.
This came as multiple industry sources familiar with what prompted the failure in the naira-for-crude talk decried the humongous forward sales of crude by NNPCL.
They stressed that the national oil company had used large volumes of its yet-to-be-produced crude oil to acquire loans from various international financial institutions, making it tough for the oil firm to have enough crude to supply the domestic market.
In a statement on Wednesday, the Dangote Group said the suspension of petroleum products’ sale in naira is temporary.
It said, “Dear valued customers, we wish to inform you that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has temporarily halted the sale of petroleum products in naira. This decision is necessary to avoid a mismatch between our sales proceeds and our crude oil purchase obligations, which are currently denominated in US dollars.
“To date, our sales of petroleum products in naira have exceeded the value of naira-denominated crude we have received. As a result, we must temporarily adjust our sales currency to align with our crude procurement currency.”
The refinery also debunked online reports that it was stopping loading due to an incident of ticketing fraud.
“This is a malicious falsehood. Our systems are robust and we have had no fraud issues. We remain committed to serving the Nigerian market efficiently and sustainably. As soon as we receive an allocation of naira-denominated crude cargoes from NNPC, we will promptly resume petroleum product sales in naira,” the statement said.
Forward crude sale
When asked to state some of the effects that the latest decision of the Dangote refinery would have on the oil sector, a major marketer, who spoke in confidence due to the nature of the matter, replied, “Two key things to ponder. Nigeria generates over 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings from the sale of crude oil.
“Secondly, we have not been able to produce much more than 1.6 million barrels a day on a consistent basis. Thirdly, much of that production has already been sold in advance to ease cash flow problems that essentially came about because NNPCL was absorbing the cost of subsidising gasoline prices. So your guess is as good as mine as to how naira for crude can be sustained. If you have an idea please share it with me.”
The oil dealer further noted that the development shows that the naira-for-crude deal between NNPCL and the Dangote refinery may have collapsed.
“I really can’t say beyond the fact that the negotiations may not be going well. As in all negotiations, there must be give and take and compromise. Once either party insists on their own position irrespective of the circumstances, then things might break down,” the dealer stated.
In an interview with one of our correspondents, the NNPCL spokesman, Olufemi Soneye, neither denied nor confirmed claims that the NNPCL was halting the naira-for-crude deal with Dangote refinery.
However, The PUNCH gathered that discussions about the deal between the Dangote refinery and the Technical Sub-Committee regarding the naira-for-crude deal have collapsed due to what sources described as a lack of enough crude.
Soneye instead insisted that the company had maintained its stance on supplying crude for local refining based on mutually agreed terms and conditions.
“As I have repeatedly stated, NNPC remains committed to supplying crude for local refining based on mutually agreed terms and conditions. Additionally, the NUPRC has disclosed that all local refining companies collectively produce less than 50 per cent of our national consumption. You can do the Maths,” he stated.
Last week, the NNPC announced that it had initiated fresh negotiations with the Dangote refinery over the renewal of the naira-for-crude agreement, as talks were underway in anticipation of the expiration of the first phase which started in October 2024 and ends this month.
Soneye said 48 million barrels of crude had been supplied to the Dangote refinery since October. As the Dangote refinery suspends the sale of petroleum products in naira, it means marketers would have to source dollars before buying petrol from the facility.
With this, the National Vice President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Hammed Fashola, said there could be pressure on the naira, and that it would lose the stability it had gained lately.
He said, “The price of petrol will depend on the exchange rate, the crude price, and other factors that determine the landing cost. Recently the landing cost was around N774.82, if that is sustainable for now, Dangote’s suspension of naira sales may not affect prices for now. But the dollar may lose value if marketers run after the dollar to buy petrol from Dangote refinery, the naira will lose value again. Let’s wait and see the market reaction to this move from the Dangote refinery.”
In his advice, the IPMAN Vice President appealed to the Federal Government not to stop the naira-for-crude deal.
“I would like to advise the FG to look into the agreement with Dangote again to maintain the tempo of the prices of petroleum products. The masses today are happy with the drop in petrol prices. But just a few hours ago the private depot owners started reacting to the Dangote press release by reviewing their prices upward.
“Yesterday, we closed with N825 to N826, but this afternoon, prices have started increasing again to N835 to N836 per litre. I will appeal to the FG to continue supplying crude to Dangote and other local refiners to maintain stability in the sector,” Fashola said.
Speaking, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the suspension of the supply of fuel in naira will raise the price again, saying, however, that the Federal Government has yet to stop the naira-for-crude deal.
Gillis-Harry told our correspondent that there was a meeting on Wednesday with the Federal Government and other stakeholders in the sector.
According to him, PETROAN and other marketers made it clear at the meeting that the deal should not be stopped because of its negative effects on fuel prices, saying Dangote might be speculating.
“Dangote’s suspension of fuel supply in naira will certainly affect prices. The price will go up again. But for me, right now, the issue of suspension or cancellation of the naira-for-crude deal has not been categorically made by the Federal Government. We have been in meetings. We asked questions because this naira-for-crude deal is something very important to us as retail outlet owners. Today (Wednesday), I was at a meeting where the subject was discussed.
“So, there was no decision that has been made as we speak. So, I don’t know where that Dangote decision is coming from. But he is a businessman, he can speculate. Every businessman is entitled to a projective opinion,” Gillis-Harry said.
The PETROAN boss told our correspondent that the naira-for-crude deal became a heated topic at the Wednesday meeting as marketers insisted on its continuation.
“We just left the meeting where the subject was a heated one. I’m talking because I led retailers and we know that we want the naira-for-crude deal to stay. So, I’m talking still with the expectation that this will happen,” he added.
The naira-for-crude deal emboldened the Dangote refinery to lower the prices of PMS repeatedly, forcing the NNPC to do so even when it was affecting its margins.
Industry sources said stopping the naira-for-crude deal might be a calculated attempt to reduce the influence of the $20bn refinery, which some players in the downstream accused of planning monopolistic tendencies.
On Tuesday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, met with the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote. The minister was said to have told Dangote about the difficulty in the naira-for-crude deal.
Refiners react
Domestic crude oil refiners argued that the halt in crude supply in naira was the latest ploy to frustrate the Dangote refinery and bring back the full importation of refined petroleum products.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, disclosed that suspending the deal defeats the efforts of all stakeholders in the sector to achieve energy security.
He said some persons are aggrieved about the continuous reduction in petrol by the refinery and only use monopolistic talks to bring back importation as an alternative.
He said, “What the Federal Government did during the negotiations was that it shut CORAN and we are not privy to what transpired. We also don’t know the terms and conditions. It is now making it difficult for us to midwife in the conversation. Ideally, the association should have been carried along for advocacy purposes. But right now, whatever it is, it is unfortunate if they allow what everyone has painstakingly worked for to go down the drain.
“At this rate, this means we would revert to full import and that means our naira will begin to struggle again. That is the implication and high petrol price. We knew that the naira-for-crude deal was going to help the Federal Government in the long run. But right now, the issue is that a lot of people are blinded by the fact that Dangote is benefitting from it and not looking at the overall advantages it has for Nigerians.”
The National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, said the development would jerk up pump prices due to the cost of sourcing foreign exchange to pay for the product.
“Dangote has been under serious pressure to source for dollars to buy crude. And this means marketers would have to buy in dollars. Whatever happens in the oil and gas sector must trickle down to the final consumer. So go and get your dollars ready to buy petrol. We can’t escape price increases. Already at the depot, they have started increasing their price. We appeal to Mr President to please continue the kind gesture for the benefit of Nigerians,” he said.
Amidst these uncertainties, depot owners have increased the loading cost of petrol and other refined petroleum products at the depots.
Several private depots, including Bovas, Aipec, Menj, and Integrated stopped dispensing petrol.
An analysis of data obtained by one of our correspondents revealing petrol price movements at loading depots on Wednesday showed that Chipet depot increased its loading price to N900 per litre from N835 per litre sold earlier in the day.
Rainoil Depot increased its price from N830 to N835 per litre, and Wosbab effected an increase of N9 from N826 to N835 per litre. Pinnacle depot made the same price change from N826 to N835 per litre while MRS Tincan and Nipco changed their prices to N835 per litre from N827 and N825, respectively.
Reacting, an oil and gas expert, Olatide Jeremiah feared that loading cost might increase to N1,000 per litre if a consensus is not reached in the next 48 hours.
Jeremiah, who is the Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, said, “The sharp petrol price increase and stop in sales by private depot upon hearing that Dangote refinery has suspended sales of petroleum products reaffirms Dangote as the market leader and driver of the downstream sector. I am calling on NNPCL and NUPRC, as a matter of urgency, to act on section 109 of the PIA act that states clearly that Local refineries should be given unhindered access to crude.
“If Dangote refinery and NNPCL are unable to reach a consensus in the next 48 hours, fuel pump prices might hit 1000/Litre in the coming days.”
