The AFEX 2024 Wet Season report has linked the rising costs of rice, maize, and soybean to high fertilizer prices, reduced land under cultivation, limited fertilizer use, and adverse climate conditions.
The report projects a 13 per cent decline in staple food production, driving up prices in 2025. It anticipates a 5.6 per cent drop in maize production, 2.6 per cent in paddy rice, and 4.8 per cent in soybean.
The report also warned of a possible scarcity of the staple foods in 2025.
“Maize production is projected to decline by 5.6 per cent to an estimated 11 million metric tons. Paddy rice production is set to decrease by 2.6 per cent to 8.1 million metric tons, and soybean production by 4.8 per cent, resulting in 1.2 million metric tons,” the report stated.
The decline in soybean yield is mainly due to the “scarcity of Single Super Phosphate (SSP) fertilizer, essential for soybeans due to its low nitrogen requirement”.
This shortage has driven up SSP prices, leading many farmers to use less effective fertilizers, which has impacted yields.
For maize, the report said, “the decrease is attributed to a reduced land area under cultivation, limited fertilizer use, and adverse climate conditions. Rising production costs led farmers to reduce their farm sizes by over 3 per cent.”
Paddy rice production is affected by high fertilizer costs, prompting some farmers to switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops, like sesame and sorghum.
Widespread insecurity in major rice-producing states and severe flooding have also disrupted rice farming, worsening the outlook for this crop.
The report warned that these factors will likely reduce both the “availability and price of paddy rice in the coming year.”
Climate change has exacerbated the issue, with prolonged dry spells in states like Taraba and flooding in states like Kaduna affecting maize production and supply.
Financial constraints on ginger farmers may also impact 2024/2025 production, the report highlighted.
“We estimate a 136 per cent year-on-year increase in ginger output for 2024, totaling around 160,000 metric tons. Although farmers expanded ginger cultivation by 75 per cent in 2023, the area harvested was significantly lower due to a fungal outbreak that reduced production from 845,000 metric tons in 2022 to just 68,000 metric tons in 2023.”