Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has predicted a slowing pace of groundbreaking generative artificial intelligence (AI) advancements by 2025.
Pichai disclosed this at the New York Times DealBook Summit noting that while generative AI has made remarkable strides, its rapid transformation may slow as the industry matures.
“I think the progress is going to get harder. When I look at [2025], the low-hanging fruit is gone,” he stated
Pichai emphasized the increasing difficulty in AI advancements, noting that deeper breakthroughs will be essential to progress to the next stage.
“The hill is steeper … You’re definitely going to need deeper breakthroughs as we get to the next stage,” Pichai said.
Industry advancements
According to Pichai, although generative AI models such as ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Meta’s Llama will continue to improve, the advancements will likely be incremental.
- These improvements, particularly in reasoning and completing sequences of actions more reliably, are expected to make the technology more practical for a broader range of applications.
- Despite the hype surrounding generative AI, its full potential in generating profits remains unrealized.
- A Goldman Sachs report forecasts that investments in AI will surpass $1 trillion in the coming years.
- However, Pichai noted that substantial financial returns from the technology are yet to materialize.
- Other industry leaders share Pichai’s outlook. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently compared AI’s development trajectory to the Industrial Revolution
“Seventy years of the Industrial Revolution, there wasn’t much industry growth, and then it took off … it’s never going to be linear,” Nadella said.
Not all tech leaders agree with the cautious optimism. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, for instance, countered claims of stagnation with a simple post on X (formerly Twitter)
“There is no wall.” His comment addressed criticism that recent iterations of generative AI, like ChatGPT-4, offer only moderate improvements over earlier versions.
AI’s evolving impact
While transformative leaps may be absent in 2025, Pichai highlighted that steady, incremental progress will still expand AI’s utility, underlining the technology’s long-term potential to democratize skills and opportunities
“I think 10 years from now, [computer programming] will be accessible to millions more people,” he said.
What you should know
A recent report titled “The AI Adoption Gap and Consumer Needs,” released by KS&R, highlights consumer hesitation towards purchasing generative AI-enabled products.
- According to the report, 49% of surveyed consumers are unlikely to purchase such products, with only 15% expressing interest in buying them.
- The study, which involved 500 participants, revealed that the reluctance is particularly strong among older consumers. However, even among younger consumers, 42% of those aged 18 to 24 said they were unlikely to buy generative AI products.
The primary reason for this hesitation is a lack of trust in generative AI, which was cited by 22% of respondents as a significant concern.
This distrust is accompanied by a general lack of awareness about AI’s capabilities and potential dangers, as well as doubts about its necessity.