The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) says the country’s inflation outlook for 2025 promises to be positive, just as it cautioned the National Assembly on setting what it called arbitrary revenue targets for revenue-generating agencies.
Chief Executive Officer CCPE Dr Muda Yusuf said this Wednesday while reacting to the December inflation figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which stood at 34.80 percent.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the increase in the December headline inflation was marginal at 0.20 per cent compared with November inflation figures of 34.60 per cent.
The hike was primarily driven by the increased demand for goods and services to celebrate the festive season.
Yusuf, however, hinged his projected positive inflation metrics on sustained moderation in exchange rate volatility and improvement in foreign reserves.
He added that the prospects of easing geopolitical tensions with the inception of Donald Trump’s presidency in few days’ time would positively impact the inflation rate.
The economic expert, however, urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to pause on monetary policy tightening and interest rate hikes to ensure further moderation in inflammatory pressures.
This, Yusuf said, would reduce business operating costs.
He also advocated a reduction in fiscal risks to macroeconomic stability through a reduction in fiscal deficit and deceleration in public debt growth.
“Inflationary pressures continue to be a troubling feature of the Nigerian economy as reflected in the December inflation numbers.
“CPPE is worried about the current fixation of the National Assembly on revenue, especially the arbitrary revenue targets for Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).
“Excessive pressure on MDAs to boost revenue and increase Internally Generated Revenue has profound inflationary implications,” he said.
Yusuf noted that in reality, such pressures were invariably transmitted to investors in form of higher fees, levies, penalties, import duties and regulatory charges, among others.
These outcomes, he said, were in conflict with government aspirations to boost investment, curb inflation and create jobs.
He noted that revenue targets should be based on empirical studies, absorptive capacity of the economy and due consideration of the wider economic implications.
“Obsession with revenue would hurt investments, worsen inflationary pressures, aggravate poverty and impede economic growth.
“There should be a careful balance act between revenue growth aspirations, desire to boost investment and commitment to moderate inflation,” he said. (NAN)
…NBS releases new inflation rate
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 34.80 per cent in December 2024 from 34.60 per cent in November.
The development marks a continuation of the upward trend observed in September 2024, when the nation recorded a reversal of a two-month decline.
The statistics office said the December 2024 headline inflation rate showed a marginal increase of 0.20 per cent compared to the November 2024 headline inflation rate.
| It said this was due to increased demand for goods and services during the December festive period. |
On a year-on-year basis, the NBS said the headline inflation rate was 5.87 per cent higher than the rate recorded in December 2023 (28.92 per cent).
“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2024 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2023),” it said.
On the contrary, the bureau said on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2024 was 2.44 per cent, which was 0.20 per cent lower than the rate recorded in November 2024 (2.64 per cent).
“This means that in December 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is slightly lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in November 2024,” the report added.
According to the report, the food inflation rate in December 2024 was 39.84 per cent yearly, 5.91 per cent points higher than in December 2023 (33.93 per cent).
The persistent rise in inflation has intensified concerns over its impact on purchasing power, with food and energy costs remaining major sources of pressure.
Nigeria has experienced a sharp increase in food prices in recent years, a trend that worsened in 2023 following President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s removal of petrol subsidies and adoption of a floating exchange rate for the naira.
This shift has led to a steep increase in the cost of staple food, pushing many Nigerians further into poverty and heightening food insecurity.
The persistent surge in prices over the past year has led to several farms and businesses closing, with many agricultural producers scaling back their output due to insecurity and unpredictable weather conditions affecting rural areas.
In response, Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food insecurity in July 2023, aiming to combat rising food costs. Despite these efforts, food inflation has continued unabated.
Last July, Tinubu unveiled some proactive measures to address skyrocketing food prices in the country. Amongst it, is the decision to suspend duties, tariffs, and taxes on importing essential food items such as beans, wheat, and husked brown rice.
However, food inflation has shown little sign of easing.
Breakdown
In its inflation report Wednesday, the NBS said the contributions of items on the divisional year-on-year level to the increase in the headline index are food & non-alcoholic beverages (18.02 per cent), housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuel (5.82 per cent), clothing & footwear (2.66 per cent), and transport (2.26 per cent),.
Others are furnishings & household equipment & maintenance (1.75 per cent), education (1.37 per cent), health (1.05 per cent), miscellaneous goods & services (0.58 per cent), restaurant & hotels (0.42 per cent), alcoholic beverage, tobacco & kola (0.38 per cent), recreation & culture (0.24 per cent) and communication (0.24 per cent).
The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending December 2024 over the average for the previous twelve-month period was 33.24 per cent, showing an 8.58 per cent increase compared to 24.66 per cent recorded in December 2023.
Food inflation
The NBS said the rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items: yam, water yam, sweet potatoes, etc. (potatoes, yam & other tubers class), beer, pinto (tobacco class), guinea corn, maize grains, rice, etc (bread and cereals class), and dried fish-sardine, catfish dried, etc (fish class).
On a month-on-month basis, the bureau said the food inflation rate in December 2024 was 2.66 per cent, which shows a 0.32 per cent decrease compared to the rate recorded in November 2024 (2.98 per cent).
“The decline can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of local beer (burukutu), pinto (tobacco class), fruit juice in tin, malt drinks, etc. (soft drinks class), rice, millet, maize flour, etc. (bread and cereals class) and water yam, Irish potatoes, coco yam, etc. (potatoes, yam & other tubers class).
“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending December 2024 over the previous twelve-month average was 39.12 per cent, which was 11.16 per cent points higher compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2023 (27.96 per cent),” the report said. (Premium Times)